According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), the opposition Mahagathabandhan, or the Grand Alliance, which is led by the Indian National Congress and the regional Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), was leading in just 33 seats as of 5:30 p.m. (1200 GMT) on Friday. In contrast, the NDA had gained two seats and was leading in 204 out of 243.

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which is now not part of any alliance, was ahead in one seat. In the remaining five seats, the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), a different party not affiliated with any major coalition, had either won or was in the lead.

The BJP and its supporters

With a 20.5 percent total vote share, the BJP had either won or was in the lead in 93 seats within the NDA.
With 19 percent of the vote overall, the regional Janata Dal (United), often known as JD(U), a significant NDA supporter, had won or was in the lead in 83 seats.
The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), often known as the LJPRV, is another local NDA ally that has won or is leading in 19 seats.
In four seats, the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RSHTLKM) was in the lead.
Five seats had been won or were in the lead by the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular).
Alliance of opposition

With 8.7 percent of the vote, the Congress, India's biggest opposition party, had either won or was in the lead in five seats.
With 22.8 percent of the vote, RJD, the largest party in the Grand Alliance, held or was in the lead in 26 seats.
One seat was being held by the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation), or CPI(ML)(L).
One seat was won by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), or CPI(M).
How are Maithili Thakur and Tejashwi Yadav doing?
Two of the most closely followed constituencies throughout the vote-counting process were Alinagar and Raghopur.

Raghopur has always been a bastion of the RJD. However, Tejashwi Yadav, the son of RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav and currently the party's de facto head, was briefly behind BJP candidate Satish Kumar in the Yadav family stronghold during the counting process. 

 By 1200 GMT, with the majority of votes counted, this had changed to a 13,000 vote advantage for Yadav. 

 If Yadav were to still lose, it will be a historic setback for what was, for years, the first family of Bihar. He has already been elected in 2020 and 2015. In the past, his mother, Rabri Devi, has won from Raghopur three times, while his father has won twice.

In the Alinagar seat, popular folk singer Maithili Thakur, supporting the BJP, was ahead by 8,588 votes, while Binod Mishra, of the RJD, was in second place. It was another close race.

What is causing the outcomes?

Voters who are female
Modi's party's outreach to female voters are credited by political observers with helping the main ruling party win this election.

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In September, the BJP gave 7.5 million women around $880 million through a seed investment initiative dubbed the Chief Minister's Women Employment Scheme, which paid 10,000 rupees ($112.70) straight into their bank accounts. "The assistance can be used in areas of the beneficiary's choice, including agriculture, animal husbandry, handicrafts, tailoring, weaving, and other small-scale enterprises," according to Modi's office.

 

In Bihar, where women's political engagement is increasing, women comprise about half of all eligible voters. The state has historically had a low percentage of female representation.

However, Bihar increased women's political presence in 2006 by allocating 50% of seats in municipal bodies to them.

Since 2010, the number of female voters in the state has frequently exceeded that of male voters. 

This time, women's turnout was 71.6 percent, while men's was 62.8 percent.

Verification of voter identification
Through a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral registers over the last several months, the opposition has also charged that the ECI has purposefully altered the official voter list to the BJP's advantage. 

Voters who were registered had to provide documentation attesting to their Indian citizenship and their lawful residency in the constituency where they cast their ballots.
However, the ECI identified a number of papers as evidence of identification, and many of the poorest people in Bihar lack any of these.


Therefore, the opposition contends that this additional condition may deny voting rights to impoverished and vulnerable populations, such as Muslims and members of underprivileged castes, who tend to support the RJD-Congress coalition.

74.2 million voters remained after the ECI deleted 4.7 million individuals from Bihar's records in September. Voter removals in the Muslim-majority region of Seemanchal were higher than the state average.

What relevance do these findings have?

With 130 million residents, Bihar is the third most populated state in India. Its number of legislators sent to parliament is the seventh highest.

Modi, who was sworn in for his third premiership after winning the national elections in June 2024, has seen the most recent poll as a crucial test of his popularity.

However, the BJP had to rely on regional partners like the JD(U) to form the government after failing to win a majority in the national election on its own.

The BJP has won the most of the state elections since the national election, and Bihar appears to be following suit.